I’d like to share some of my thoughts about next year’s economy in general. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look very promising so that I anticipate disasters on at least two levels:

• On the financial level, 2025 will see a financial tsunami sweeping across the globe. Risk assets will have almost no survivors, whether it’s the long-running bull market in U.S. stocks or recent rising stars like the Indian financial markets. This includes the A-shares showing recent signs of a bull market, and even the Japanese stock market that’s been artificially propped up by Buffett and other American financial giants. All global financial markets will fall together, none will be spared - this is the scenario we’ll inevitably see in 2025. Objectively speaking, 2025 will witness at least a financial plunder war - this is the first level.

• On the economic level, with the global financial crisis as a precursor, the economic mechanisms of most countries will completely collapse. Capital plundering beyond financial markets will become exceptionally clear - lighter cases like what happened in Southeast Asia before, severe cases like Ukraine and Argentina. Poor-quality assets will directly collapse, while quality assets will be dragged down with them, ultimately leaving no survivors.

The U.S. and the Federal Reserve are anticipating, or rather, making every effort to facilitate this global financial crisis.

Because if only the U.S. suffers, they suffer alone, but if it’s a global recession, everyone suffers together. Under self-interest, they prefer collective suffering over suffering alone. Only when everyone declines can the relatively better-positioned U.S. maintain its integrity while preserving its lead.

The U.S. has accumulated enormous debt and must trigger such a crisis. If they can’t attract enough capital to buy their Treasury bonds and can only resort to printing money for self-repayment, it will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar system built over decades. Therefore, a strong dollar and bursting global stock market bubbles or real estate markets and other countries’ bond markets is their only choice.

Modern information dissemination will lead to faster and more dramatic manifestations than previous financial crises, making it difficult to analyze using traditional economic theories. People should view this from a more macro perspective of great power competition to understand the essence of the problem.