Dario Amodei’s argument is essentially a form of “American-centric technological Darwinism.” Its core logic boils down to:
- Technologically: Maintain America’s “scale advantage” through hardware restrictions, locking China into the lower end of the supply chain.
- Politically: Amplify the “China threat” narrative to justify a tech cold war.
- Commercially: Secure policy benefits and market dominance for companies like Anthropic.
However, this narrative has three blind spots:
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Underestimating China’s technological resilience: Domestic chip alternatives (e.g., Huawei’s Ascend 910B, which rivals the H80) and open-source models (e.g., DeepSeek’s open MoE architecture) could break through the blockade.
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Overestimating the decisiveness of hardware: AI competition is a complex game involving algorithms, data, chips, and talent—no single factor can determine the outcome.
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Ignoring the backlash against globalization: Technological nationalism risks fracturing global innovation networks, ultimately slowing progress across the industry.
In the end, the future of AI development may hinge on one question: Who can translate technology into societal value faster, rather than simply hoarding computing power?