A financial crisis is likely to detonate in the second half of next year, but where could it be? A highly possible situation is that it will start in the Asia-Pacific region, most likely beginning with Japan, South Korea, and India.
Let’s consider the current situation in the US:
- financial expenditure is steadily rising, and while there’s the Trump-McCarthy agreement, its effect on reducing government spending is limited.
- US debt continues to increase, with particularly large amounts due for repayment in 2025-26.
The US has devised two approaches: First, developing cryptocurrency as a source of repayment - a remarkably sophisticated operation that ordinary people should avoid participating in. Second, finding ways to eliminate debt holders - since traditional warfare is unlikely, this must happen on the financial level.
The US isn’t capable of creating bubbles in other countries; instead, their approach is to burst existing bubbles. The world’s three major bubbles are China’s real estate, the US stock/bond market, and Japan’s bond market. China’s real estate bubble has been gradually deflating in recent years.
The US manipulated offshore bonds of mainland real estate companies. The next target is naturally Japan’s bond market. Japan’s stock market, dormant for many years, was suddenly pushed up to better trigger Japan’s debt crisis, leading to a new Asian financial storm.
There’s no need to envy India’s or other countries’ stock markets. Their stock market elevation is largely to prepare for incoming financial harvesting. Japan’s bond market only needs to have its previous arbitrage model disrupted to achieve the desired effect.
However, we shouldn’t be overly pessimistic. When all countries face financial crisis, our comprehensive industrial system will help us recover faster. Of course, this premises on improving residents’ income system, rather than continuing the situation where retirees with pensions over 10,000 far exceed young people’s earnings.
Often, a powerful nation’s biggest problem isn’t external enemies but resolving internal contradictions. Unresolved internal contradictions are the key reason for stunted development. The decline of the US and Soviet Union are perfect examples - it wasn’t that their enemies grew stronger, but that they became internally chaotic.