Happy New Year!

In this post, I’m going to talk about a familar but unpleasant topic —— financial risks, and elaborate to make it more vigilant.

First, the Federal Reserve will likely pause rate cuts in the second half of next year, and might resume rate hikes after a few months’ pause. Why is the Fed now conducting regular stress tests on its banking sector, while major U.S. banks continue to see growing profits? I personally suspect this is preparation for triggering a future crisis.

Second, Buffett’s cash reserves are steadily increasing, having grown significantly since my last post. I hope everyone studies history - before every financial crisis, there’s typically a rapid rise in financial markets across countries, with people ignoring risks while making frenzied profits. It’s similar to what happened before the 2008 financial crisis, when people went from mocking Buffett to admiring him. History tends to repeat itself exactly.

Third, the risk of a U.S. stock market crash could easily be attributed to Trump. Although Trump currently holds significant power across three branches, making him one of the most powerful figures since America’s founding, he can’t control monetary policy - at most he can only influence it partially. Triggering a financial crisis during Trump’s term is likely inevitable for the deep state. What many don’t understand is that financial crises, rather than bull markets, are often when capitalists celebrate most. Why create financial crises every few years? It’s largely to help capitalists buy core assets at bottom prices or profit from short selling.

Disclaimer: This post includes speculative financial predictions and political viewpoints. As with any financial advice or market predictions, readers should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.