Trump is once again turning his attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, seeking a semi-shock breakthrough.
Overall, Trump’s approach to both foreign and domestic policy is the same: shock therapy. The difference lies in the execution—domestically, he slashes federal departments; internationally, he constantly tests the resilience of America’s allies and the nerves of his own diplomatic team. Now, Trump’s gaze has shifted back to Kyiv and Moscow. In his characteristic casual style, he picked up the phone and chatted for an hour and a half with his favorite foreign counterpart, Putin, without Zelensky in the room.
The shockwaves and subsequent reactions from this move are testing the nerves and resolve of America’s European allies, NATO, and, of course, Zelensky in Kyiv. On February 12, Hagsties, Trump’s newly appointed Defense Secretary—a former Fox host and a major during his service in the reserves—made two things clear to Zelensky: Ukraine’s accession to NATO is impossible, and the restoration of Ukraine’s 2014 borders is “unrealistic.” Trump then explicitly backed Hagsties’ statements and, without Zelensky present, spent 90 minutes talking to Putin. Trump himself described it, and Western media accepted it, as “Trump and Putin initiating Russia-Ukraine negotiations.” If this is indeed the case, then by Western diplomatic standards, Ukraine is being served up on a platter as a bargaining chip.
For Zelensky, this is nothing short of a disaster-level shock. He told Ukrainian journalists, “As a sovereign nation, we cannot accept any agreement without our participation.” He added that Europe must also be involved. This is essentially the limit of what Zelensky can do diplomatically—using the sunk cost and moral leverage (this isn’t just Kyiv’s fate, it’s about the face of Europe and NATO) to ensure that Trump doesn’t sell out Kyiv in a single phone call with Putin. Of course, in reality, we can expect to see some physical attempts on the battlefield or elsewhere. After all, Zelensky still has some money in his pocket, weapons in his arsenal, and people under his command. It’s unlikely he’ll surrender without a fight. As for the intensity of this struggle, we should maintain a basic, cautious confidence that it will happen, though the extent and effectiveness remain uncertain.
NATO, EU leaders, and Germany are also feeling the heat. The reason is simple: while Trump called Putin without Zelensky, he also excluded NATO, the EU, and any major European country (including Germany) from the conversation. This echoes the 1960s Cuban Missile Crisis, where the U.S. withdrew Jupiter missiles from Europe in exchange for the Soviet Union removing its missiles from Cuba. Europe is at risk of being sold out again. But the problem is, Putin isn’t Khrushchev, who banged his shoe on the table. Just the thought of Putin reminiscing about his days working in Germany in the 1980s is enough to send shivers down Berlin’s spine.
Russia’s demands are clear, according to Western media reports: they won’t return the territory, NATO expansion is a non-starter, and Western sanctions must be lifted. Some media outlets have bluntly stated that, if you ignore the diplomatic language (showing Putin’s consideration for Trump’s feelings with some rhetoric), this isn’t a negotiation proposal—it’s an ultimatum. More plainly, Ukraine and Europe are worried that the U.S. will negotiate terms on Ukraine’s behalf and then pressure Kyiv to bow and sign under Russian terms.
Of course, this is also Trump’s main challenge: he needs a “diplomatic victory” in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In other words, Russia needs to make some gesture that Trump can spin as a “concession,” preferably related to territory. Meanwhile, Trump may have to deal with a stubborn Zelensky, who still has some domestic control. Zelensky’s recent moves against Poroshenko show he understands the key issue: as long as he remains Ukraine’s president, Ukraine can dig in its heels and refuse to sign. In that case, Trump might not have many good options to pressure Kyiv.
If Trump somehow manages to solve this dilemma, Ukraine’s fate will likely be partition. Russia, of course, will take its share. The U.S., desperate for collateral amid its debt crisis and even eyeing Canada and Greenland, won’t want to miss out on this fertile black soil. There’s also the possibility of finding a new “promised land” for Israel.